Side meetings lasted for many hours, ending at midnight or dawn the next day, but the positions among the countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) still could not be agreed upon.
The Canadian leader’s failure to appear at the last minute due to hesitation caused the TPP 11 signing ceremony on the afternoon of November 10 to not take place as planned.
However, Mr. Champagne also said that `the final agreement is still being negotiated because the countries have not yet agreed on all aspects of the agreement.`
Although the determination to implement the 11 economies is clearly shown, the hesitation of some countries in the group of 11 countries to accelerate the TPP progress is not unexpected.
The gap left in the situation of interests between countries, when the US – the largest trading partner is no longer there and how to deal with bilateral and multilateral agreements being negotiated with the US, has caused many countries to have to
Canadian Trade Minister François-Philippe Champagne at the TPP session at APEC 2017. Photo: Reuters
On February 4, 2016, when 12 member countries signed the TPP agreement, they were all confident in an open future, with expectations of benefits brought to the 12 economies on both sides of Thailand.
But just one year later, at the end of January 2017, that bright future picture changed when US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw the US from the TPP.
TPP-11, or the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement of 11 countries excluding the US was promoted as an effort to continue to retain this important agreement.
However, the effort to retain TPP puts member countries before a new problem.
Canada – the country that did not appear at the signing ceremony on the afternoon of November 10, belongs to the second group with the desire to renegotiate some provisions of the agreement.
However, the new situation of TPP with both ideas of acceleration and negotiation is actually pushing this agreement into a dilemma.
In terms of the group of countries that want to renegotiate, including Canada.
The current commitments in the TPP themselves have been discussed for many consecutive years, and the United States, as the leading economy, has partly imposed its standards on the agreement.
However, Canada faces another problem: the country is renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the Trump administration.
Although it brings benefits to both sides, the interests of each country are carefully weighed before signing each trade agreement.
If Canada immediately signs into TPP 11 with `American-minded` trade agreement foundations, the country itself will lose `capital` when negotiating NAFTA.
On the other hand, many smaller economies that accepted the terms of the previous TPP in the spirit of a trade-off (between benefits from the US market and pressure for higher trade standards), will expect
However, this first aspect has risks, most notably that renegotiation could make the implementation of TPP take longer, even by years.
In addition, if TPP’s standards are lowered at the request of some members, the overall spirit of this agreement from the early days of negotiations on efforts to build a set of high trade standards will collapse.
And this is the concern of Japan – the leading economy among 11 countries on both sides of the Pacific – with the desire to speed up the progress of TPP.
From a time perspective, Japan – the country most active in promoting TPP after the US left, also has reasons to promote the signing of TPP 11 as quickly as possible.
There is an opinion that Japan, which is an ally of the US, is determined to retain the previously negotiated terms (with the US playing the leading role) as an opportunity for the world’s leading economy to turn around.
But some experts believe that Japan is trying to accelerate TPP 11 to take the vacant position of the United States in shaping free trade in Asia, when there are concerns that China will increase its power.
The world’s third largest economy is expressing a clear view that it wants to increase its presence and not be left behind in the race between the two leading powers, the US and China.
Although there are still many problems, compared to the previous tense negotiation period, the current TPP still has many opportunities for implementation.