In December 2020, when vaccines were approved one after another, opening up hope of ending the pandemic, nCoV once again mutated, becoming more infectious.
In fact, viruses always mutate, but usually do not have a significant impact.
Initial research indicates that B.1.1.7 is unlikely to aggravate symptoms.
But scientists believe that the new nCoV variants are more worrying than before, and could be a potential disaster or a ‘slow bomb’, according to Zeynep Tufekci, professor at the University of North Carolina, USA.
At this stage, the more contagious variant is even more dangerous than the highly virulent variant.
The high transmissibility of the virus devastated countries in a very short period of time, especially in some places like the US and India, which had previously let the epidemic get out of control.
According to Professor Tufekci, authorities should pay attention to the short-term impact while waiting for clearer data.
To understand the difference between the risks of a fast-spreading variant and a more virulent variant, Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, offers two scenarios.
One is that the virus increases its virulence by 50%, the other is that the virus increases its infectiousness by 50%.
Next, imagine about 10,000 people infected with Covid-19 at the same time – a completely reasonable number for many European cities today.
With those factors, normally, about 129 people will die each month.
Covid-19 patient at Khayelitsha Hospital, about 35 km from central Cape Town, December 29.
The process of the virus spreading in the community can be very rapid, becoming a major threat to society because it significantly changes the patient population.
Professor Tufekci is also concerned that news about virus variants is widely posted.
Trevor Bedford, a scientist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, pointed out that the number of cases of new variant infections in the UK is increasing very rapidly.
Meanwhile, the 501.V2 variant in South Africa is considered more worrying because it is resistant to vaccines, evades the immune system and creates false negative results when testing for PCR.
The South African variant 501.V2 carries three mutations (E484K, K417N and N501Y) in key regions of the gene – where the spike protein used to attach to human cells is produced.
`Thus, it helps nCoV overcome the immune barrier created by the vaccine,` said Francois Balloux, professor of biology, University College London.
The South African variant was first detected in the Nelson Mandela Bay area in October. Several studies indicate that it has been present and circulating since August, then spread throughout the region, including the Cape
The British variant was first found in September 2020, quickly spreading across the country in mid-December, causing the government to impose travel and business restrictions.
When cases of the B.1.1.7 variant appeared in the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) set a goal of sequencing 6,500 virus samples per week, double the previous progress of 3,000.