Russia's military intervention in Venezuela: Syria scenario recurring? 0
(Dan Tri) – The ongoing crisis in Venezuela has many people worried about the scenario of military intervention by Russia, the US and other countries in the South American country like what happened with Syria.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Since opposition leader Juan Guaido declared to become interim president of Venezuela on January 23 and challenged the administration of incumbent President Nicolas Maduro, the confrontation between Russia and the US has tended to become more tense.
During a press conference on January 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia understands that the US openly supports the overthrow of President Maduro’s government and Washington has called on members of the opposition in Venezuela `not to make concessions`.
President Vladimir Putin has also affirmed his support for `strategic partner` Venezuela and warned of `catastrophic` consequences if the US sends troops to support the opposition in Venezuela.
Proposing Russia’s role in mediating the dispute, Foreign Minister Lavrov said Moscow and some other countries would make efforts to deal with US intentions in Venezuela.
“We and other responsible members of the international community will do everything we can to support the legitimate government (Nicolas Maduro),” Mr. Lavrov emphasized.
In addition to Russia, a number of other countries are in the group supporting the Maduro government including China, Türkiye, Iran and Syria.
“Politically, the Kremlin wants to affirm that any political regime, no matter how ineffective, should not be overthrown by the people themselves,” said political analyst Aleksandr Morozov.
President Maduro spoke to the Venezuelan armed forces on January 30.
Experts say that Russia will suffer huge losses if the Maduro government collapses.
“Losing the connection with Venezuela will be a very strong blow to Russia.
Since the mid-1990s, Russia has targeted Latin America for business opportunities.
According to Professor Duncan, since coming to power in 2000, President Putin has tightened relations with partners in Latin America to counterbalance America’s influence in the region as well as enhance its position as a great power.
“A main reason for Russia’s support for Mr. Maduro, similar to the reason Russia supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, is the belief that no outside power is allowed to intervene.
Observers often view Cuba as Russia’s key ally in Latin America, but Vladimir Rouvinski, a foreign policy expert at Icesi University in Colombia, said that Russia has never made any effort to restore the level of trust.
President Putin also found `ally` in Venezuela.
Syria scenario in Latin America?
Opposition leader Juan Guaido (center), who declared himself interim president of Venezuela, protested against President Maduro.
Analysts fear that a Syrian scenario could happen in Latin America and Venezuela could become a second Syria.
Unlike Syria, Venezuela is thousands of kilometers away from Russia.
Several Russian and international media agencies reported last week that Moscow sent a force of about 400 gunmen believed to be mercenaries to Venezuela to protect President Maduro and key government assets.
Analysts say Russia does not need to deploy mercenaries to South America because the Venezuelan military has so far supported President Maduro.
In addition to geographical distance and cost issues, there are a number of other reasons why analysts believe that the scenario of Russia sending troops to Venezuela will not happen like with Venezuela.
In Syria, Russia can fight remotely, for example deploying air force or launching cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea.
Unlike Syria, the current unstable situation in Venezuela has not reached the `threshold` of war.
In the Middle East, Russia still has other friends besides Syria.
Another risk that Russia may face if it intervenes in the Venezuela situation is US sanctions.
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According to New York Times, Al Jazeera
